关税风暴下的航空货运大洗牌：上海逆势增长7.37%，北美航线却暴跌17%！

全球航空货运市场正经历政策震荡下的深度调整。近期关税政策叠加监管环境剧变，犹如双重浪潮冲击着行业生态，迫使货运运营商在贸易流向与运力调配方面开启战略级"调频"模式。

市场晴雨表率先传递信号：波罗的海航空货运指数（BAI00）四月环比实现2.53%的涨幅，这背后是中国与北美市场持续强劲的出口需求形成双引擎驱动。

但平静海面下暗流涌动，美国关税上调政策与即将于5月2日终止的最低豁免条款，如同两片阴云笼罩着整个供应链体系，正在重塑航空货运市场的底层逻辑。

波罗的海交易所最新行业分析报告揭示出市场分化的深层脉络。当电子商务物流需求出现周期性回落，叠加运营成本攀升压力，货运商们不得不启动"空中舰队"的战术重组。

法兰克福至北美（BAI24）、伦敦至东南亚（BAI43）两大经典航线分别录得17.15%和近21%的显著货量下滑，犹如两面镜子折射出传统贸易走廊的需求萎缩。

与之形成鲜明对比的是，上海浦东枢纽（BAI80）以7.37%的增量异军突起，美欧主干航线亦呈现回暖态势，勾勒出全球航空货运格局的重构轨迹。

"当前关税政策的动态调整，正在给航空货运行业戴上'紧箍咒'。"波罗的海交易所声明直言核心痛点，"运力资源正进行全球范围内的紧急转移，但这种'乾坤大挪移'对运价体系和舱位供给的长尾效应，至今仍蒙着神秘面纱。"

行业观察者指出，北亚地区作为本轮关税风暴眼，可能面临运力过剩风险，这预示着区域内将上演更为激烈的运价博弈。

戏剧性的市场变迁在北美大陆上演——被重新调配的飞机群意外激活区域市场需求。面对政策不确定性的迷雾，航空公司祭出"短平快"战术：短期包机服务与ACMI（飞机、机组、维护及保险）租赁协议成为新常态。这种"游击战"式的运力部署模式，既规避了长期合约的风险敞口，又能快速响应政策变量带来的市场脉冲。

"二季度注定将成为货运运营商的'压力测试季'。"波罗的海交易所警告称，"当关税这把手术刀精准切割全球供应链时，运力布局正从长期规划转向'打地鼠'式的动态调整。"这种行业焦虑已传导至产业链上下游：托运人为锁定运价殚精竭虑，物流企业则在采购策略与风险对冲间走钢丝。

更有专家预言，若监管政策持续处于"每周更新"的动荡状态，构建兼具成本优势与抗风险能力的供应链，或将从商业命题升级为行业性生存挑战。

在这场由政策蝴蝶效应引发的行业变局中，货机运营商们正化身为"空中棋手"，根据不断演变的贸易流图谱，在全球棋盘上移动着运力棋子。而波罗的海交易所的最新研判则为市场敲响警钟：二季度的供应链震荡不仅不会平息，反而可能因关税政策的持续发酵衍生出更多连锁反应。当贸易格局在关税壁垒间重新洗牌，航空货运市场的"阵痛期"或许才刚刚开启。

Tariff increases and regulatory shifts are fueling volatility in air cargo markets, forcing freighter operators to adjust trade flows and capacity strategies.

The Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) rose 2.53% month-over-month in April, supported by strong outbound demand from China and North America. However, underlying disruptions — including U.S. tariff hikes and the May 2 cancellation of the de minimis exemption — are reshaping freighter operations and supply chain dynamics.

In a new analysis, Baltic Exchange said freighter operators are repositioning aircraft as e-commerce shipments decline and cost pressures mount. Routes from Frankfurt to the U.S. (BAI24) and London to Southeast Asia (BAI43) saw sharp declines of 17.15% and nearly 21%, respectively, signaling weaker demand.

Meanwhile, Shanghai Pudong (BAI80) recorded a 7.37% increase, with rates to the U.S. and Europe climbing.

"The latest tariff adjustments are creating significant uncertainty for air cargo operators," the Baltic Exchange said in a statement. "Freighter capacity is being redeployed to alternative markets, but the long-term impact on pricing and availability remains unclear."

Industry analysts expect further adjustments in fleet deployment, particularly in North Asia, where excess freighter capacity may emerge post-tariff.

North American air cargo networks, however, are absorbing redirected aircraft, fueling regional demand spikes. Short-term charter and ACMI contracts are becoming the preferred strategy as carriers navigate policy uncertainty.

"Freighter operators are facing a turbulent second quarter," the Baltic Exchange noted. "With tariffs reshaping demand patterns, capacity planning is increasingly reliant on short-term agreements and flexible fleet positioning."

It added that shippers and logistics firms face mounting questions over pricing strategies and long-term freight procurement.

"If regulatory conditions continue shifting week to week, securing cost-effective and resilient supply chains will be increasingly difficult," Baltic Exchange said.

It added that the second quarter is expected to see continued disruptions, as tariffs reshape trade flows and freighter operators recalibrate network strategies in response to evolving demand patterns.