98.4%准班率！马士基&赫伯罗特“双子座”改写航运规则，传统联盟慌了吗？

海洋情报局近日透露，双子座合作公司的班轮服务在2月份展现出了高达98.4%的时间表可靠性，这一成绩为整体网络性能的提升做出了显著贡献。

这家来自丹麦的海事咨询公司进一步指出，回顾过去三十年集装箱航运联盟的发展历程，其业务领域大多局限于干线和深海服务，而个别承运人成员则自行经营支线服务。

然而，由赫伯罗特股份公司与马士基A/S强强联合发起的双子座合作公司，却对其联盟网络设计另辟蹊径，采用了轮辐式模式，在正式联盟中减少了主线服务，转而更加注重通过班轮进行转运。

据悉，双子座班轮网络在全面推出后将覆盖广泛，共计设有28项班轮服务。其中，有15项服务已于2025年2月正式启动，具体分布为：10项部署在亚洲地区，2项在欧洲，另有3项则在印度次大陆及中东地区。

海洋情报局特别强调，这15项服务在2025年2月的时间表可靠性均达到了令人满意的98.4%。值得一提的是，除了A04和A09这两项均部署在亚洲的班轮货运服务外，其余所有服务均实现了100%的时间表可靠性。

尽管如此，海洋情报公司首席执行官Alan Murphy仍谨慎指出，有几个因素值得深思。他提到，首先，新联盟（包括MSC的新网络）的真正性能测试将在2025年7月全面推出时进行，届时才可见分晓。

他指出，在推出的初期阶段，第一个月往往挑战性较小，因为仅有少量船只会逐步加入新网络。而随着更多船只的加入，后续的月份将面临更大的挑战。

此外，Murphy还补充道，当前我们仅掌握了2025年2月计划中双子座班轮服务的部分数据，即15次服务的得分情况。尽管这些服务的抵达人数众多，但需要注意的是，2月份仅运行了欧洲班轮网络的一小部分。

更为重要的是，双子座干线服务在2月份尚未实现从始发地到目的地（如从亚洲到欧洲）的全程连接，因为这样的连接需要一个多月的时间来建立。

分析人士指出，由于上述原因，双子座班轮网络在2月份仅能为干线服务提供补给，尚未能从干线接收集装箱并运往最终卸货港。尽管如此，Murphy仍给予高度评价：“也就是说，尽管目前仍处于早期阶段，但双子座合作公司的表现已经相当令人印象深刻。”

Sea-Intelligence said the Gemini Cooperation's shuttle services achieved a schedule reliability of 98.4% in February, contributing significantly to overall network performance.

The Danish maritime consultancy firm said that in the last three decades of container shipping alliances, the domain of the alliances has always been exclusively on mainliner, deep-sea services, with individual carrier members operating their own feeder services.

But, Gemini Cooperation — a joint initiative by Hapag-Lloyd AG and Maersk A/S — has taken a different approach to their alliance network design, incorporating a hub-and-spoke model within their formal alliance, with fewer mainliner calls and an increased focus on transhipment via shuttles.

Sea-Intelligence said the Gemini shuttle network, when fully rolled out, will be quite expansive, with 28 shuttle services. 15 of the shuttle services were launched in February 2025. Of those, 10 were deployed in Asia, 2 in Europe, and 3 in the Indian Subcontinent/Middle East.

"Overall, schedule reliability for the Gemini shuttle services was 98.4% in February 2025," it said, adding that all but two shuttle services, A04 and A09 (both deployed in Asia), had 100% schedule reliability.

Alan Murphy, CEO, Sea-Intelligence, noted that despite this, there are a few factors to take into consideration: Firstly, the true performance test of the new alliances (and MSC's new network) will be when they are fully rolled out in July 2025.

He noted that during the roll-out phase, the first month is likely to be the least challenging, as only a small subset of vessels will be phased into the new network, while the later roll-out months are traditionally more challenging, as many vessels are phasing in at the same time.

"Secondly, we only have February 2025 scores for 15 of the 28 planned Gemini shuttle services, and while the number of arrivals for the 15 services is significant, only a small subset of European shuttles had been launched in February," he said.

"Thirdly, none of the Gemini mainliner services made connections from origin to destination regions (e.g., from Asia to Europe) in February, as it takes more than a month to make such connections."

The analysis noted that the Gemini shuttles have thus "only" been feeding the mainliner services in February and have yet to receive containers from mainliners to be shipped to the final discharge port.

"That said, even if it is still very early days, it is still an impressive first performance," Murphy said.